This morning’s ADP National Employment Report showed the addition of 182,000 jobs to private payrolls last month, almost exactly as economists predicted. (Those polled by Reuters were looking for gains of 180,000 jobs.) However, last month’s report was revised downward to 190,000 jobs from 200,000 jobs, and job creation has averaged 184,000 per month over the past three months. A year ago, gains averaged 263,000 for the same three-month period. Is job growth slowing?
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“Job growth as measured by the ADP Research Institute is not slowing meaningfully in contrast with the recent slowdown in the government’s data,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, in a statement. Moody’s Analytics produces the report with ADP. “The economy is creating close to 200,000 jobs per month. Job gains are broad based with energy and manufacturing alone subtracting from the top line. Small businesses, in particular, are contributing to the labor market’s solid performance.”
Businesses with fewer than 50 employees added 90,000 jobs last month; 50,000 of those jobs were added by companies with between one and 19 employees. Medium-sized businesses, with 50 to 499 employees, added 63,000 jobs in October; large businesses with 500 or more employees added 29,000 jobs.
“Firm size contributions to October employment gains returned to the same pattern we had been seeing for some time prior to September as small businesses rebounded to account for almost half the jobs added,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, VP and head of the ADP Research Institute. “Large companies continue to be negatively impacted by trends such as low oil prices and the strong dollar driving weaker exports. On the other hand, small businesses can benefit from these same trends.”
Manufacturing continued to lose jobs last month, declining by 2,000, while construction added 35,000 jobs. Business and professional services grew by 13,000 jobs in October, while trade, transportation, and utilities added 35,000 jobs. Financial activities added 9,000 jobs.
Economists predict that Friday’s report from the labor department will show gains of 180,000 jobs to public and private, non-farm payrolls, and an unchanged unemployment rate of 5.1 percent. The PayScale Index, which measures the change in wages for all employed U.S. workers, forecasts an increase in wages of 0.6 percent for the fourth quarter of 2015.
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