PayScale Predicts the 2020
U.S. Presidential Election

PayScale Predicts the
2020 U.S. Presidential Election

PayScale surveyed people who recently filled out a salary profile on how they plan to vote in order to predict the results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. In addition to predicting the election overall, we are also able break down the data to show insights on how people are voting according to location, age, education, gender, race, occupation and income (compensation).*

Election prediction data is based on the types of people who fill out salary profiles with PayScale and our election forecast is only representative of what they think at the time. See our methodology for more information.

Circumstances change so be sure to get out and vote!

*Note: Voting data does not appear in any of PayScale’s products and is not repackaged or sold. This data is for research purposes only.

PayScale surveyed people who recently filled out a salary profile on how they plan to vote in order to predict the results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. In addition to predicting the election overall, we are also able break down the data to show insights on how people are voting according to location, age, education, gender, race, occupation and income (compensation).*

Election prediction data is based on the types of people who fill out salary profiles with PayScale and our election forecast is only representative of what they think at the time. See our methodology for more information.

Circumstances change so be sure to get out and vote!

*Note: Voting data does not appear in any of PayScale’s products and is not repackaged or sold. This data is for research purposes only.

PAYSCALE'S 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SIMULATOR PREDICTS A BIDEN WIN IN A CLOSE RACE

Simulations of the U.S. Presidential Election by data scientists at PayScale show predictions of who will win the electoral college. Across 5,000 simulations, Biden wins 51.6 percent of the time, Trump wins 45.6 percent and there is a tie 2.8 percent of the time. The color of each state represents the percent of simulations won. At the median, Biden wins the electoral college 270 to 268.

Some states that have been shown to go to Biden in polls went to Trump and some that are predicted to go to Trump went to Biden. For example, PayScale's data shows Nevada and New Hampshire going for Trump and Kansas going to Biden. Swing states that are not typically swing states include Wyoming, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, and Connecticut. Typical swing states that were more definitively predicted to go to Trump in PayScale’s simulation data include Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona.

PAYSCALE'S 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SIMULATOR PREDICTS A BIDEN WIN IN A CLOSE RACE

Simulations of the U.S. Presidential Election by data scientists at PayScale show predictions of who will win the electoral college. Across 5,000 simulations, Biden wins 51.6 percent of the time, Trump wins 45.6 percent and there is a tie 2.8 percent of the time. The color of each state represents the percent of simulations won. At the median, Biden wins the electoral college 270 to 268.

Some states that have been shown to go to Biden in polls went to Trump and some that are predicted to go to Trump went to Biden. For example, PayScale's data shows Nevada and New Hampshire going for Trump and Kansas going for Biden. Swing states that are not typically swing states include Wyoming, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, and Connecticut. Typical swing states that were more definitively predicted to go to Trump in PayScale’s simulation data include Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona.

The chart below shows the outcome of the election from 100 randomly selected simulations. Each point represents a possible election outcome.

ELECTION PREDICTION FOR THE
POPULAR VOTE

Joe Biden will win the Popular Vote for President of the United States in 2020.

ELECTION PREDICTION BY
AGE

Younger people are more likely to vote for Biden.

Older people are more likely to vote for Trump.

ELECTION PREDICTION BY
EDUCATION

People who are more educated are more likely to vote for Biden.

ELECTION PREDICTION BY
GENDER

Women are more likely to vote for Biden.

Men are more likely to vote for Trump.

ELECTION PREDICTION BY
RACE

Black or African Americans are more likely to vote for Biden.

White people are more likely to vote for Trump.

Note: Due to low number of responses, the results for American Indians and Alaskan Natives may not reflect countrywide results.

ELECTION PREDICTION BY
OCCUPATION

Except for healthcare practitioners and architecture and engineering, people in white collar positions are more likely to vote for Biden; people in blue collar occupations are more likely to vote for Trump.

ELECTION PREDICTION BY
INDUSTRY

People working in management, education and professional services are more likely to vote for Biden; people in the oil and gas industry and construction are more likely to vote for Trump.

ELECTION PREDICTION BY
INCOME

People who make more than 50K are more likely to vote for Biden; people who make less than 50k are more likely to vote for Trump.

ELECTION PREDICTION FOR THE
POPULAR VOTE

Joe Biden will win the Popular Vote for President of the United States in 2020.

ELECTION PREDICTION BY
AGE

Younger people are more likely to vote for Biden.

Older people are more likely to vote for Trump.

ELECTION PREDICTION BY
EDUCATION

People who are more educated are more likely to vote for Biden.

ELECTION PREDICTION BY
GENDER

Women are more likely to vote for Biden.

Men are more likely to vote for Trump.

ELECTION PREDICTION BY
RACE

Black or African Americans are more likely to vote for Biden.

White people are more likely to vote for Trump.

Note: Due to low number of responses, the results for American Indians and Alaskan Natives may not reflect countrywide results.

ELECTION PREDICTION BY
OCCUPATION

Except for healthcare practitioners and architecture and engineering, people in white collar positions are more likely to vote for Biden; people in blue collar occupations are more likely to vote for Trump.

ELECTION PREDICTION BY
INDUSTRY

People working in management, education and professional services are more likely to vote for Biden; people in the oil and gas industry and construction are more likely to vote for Trump.

ELECTION PREDICTION BY
INCOME

People who makemore than 50K are more likely to vote for Biden; people who make less than 50k are more likely to vote for Trump.

PAYSCALE'S
METHODOLOGY

Between August 27, 2020 and October 1, 2020, PayScale collected profiles from 10,668 American respondents who provided their voting intentions for the 2020 US presidential election. Respondents reported information about their education, occupation, industry, and total cash compensation, as well as demographic information such as age, gender, and race. We used this data to report differences in voting intention based on the above factors and to predict the popular vote and electoral college vote.

PayScale survey respondents are more likely to be employed and college educated than the general voting population. To address this bias, we weighted the survey data to reflect the age, gender, educational attainment, and geographic distribution of the US registered voter population. We referred to the demographic distributions of the 2018 US registered voter population as reported by the US Census Bureau. The weighting process does not take into account differences in voter demographics among different races.

To predict the electoral college vote, we simulated the election 5,000 times and recorded the winner of each state in each of the simulations. We provide a random sample of 100 of those simulated elections to show possible election outcomes.  The electoral votes for Maine and Nebraska are split with two electoral votes given to the overall winner of the state and the remaining electoral votes (two for Maine and three for Nebraska) proportionally split to reflect the popular vote for that state.

Survey Question & Choices:

Who do you plan to vote for in the 2020 November presidential election?

  • The Republican nominee (Trump/Pence)
  • The Democratic nominee (Biden/Harris)
  • A third-party candidate
  • Undecided *
  • I do not intend to vote *
  • Prefer not to say *

* Respondents choosing these options were excluded from the analysis.

PAYSCALE'S
METHODOLOGY

Between August 27, 2020 and October 1, 2020, PayScale collected profiles from 10,668 American respondents who provided their voting intentions for the 2020 US presidential election. Respondents reported information about their education, occupation, industry, and total cash compensation, as well as demographic information such as age, gender, and race. We used this data to report differences in voting intention based on the above factors and to predict the popular vote and electoral college vote.

PayScale survey respondents are more likely to be employed and college educated than the general voting population. To address this bias, we weighted the survey data to reflect the age, gender, educational attainment, and geographic distribution of the US registered voter population. We referred to the demographic distributions of the 2018 US registered voter population as reported by the US Census Bureau. The weighting process does not take into account differences in voter demographics among different races.

To predict the electoral college vote, we simulated the election 5,000 times and recorded the winner of each state in each of the simulations. We provide a random sample of 100 of those simulated elections to show possible election outcomes.  The electoral votes for Maine and Nebraska are split with two electoral votes given to the overall winner of the state and the remaining electoral votes (two for Maine and three for Nebraska) proportionally split to reflect the popular vote for that state.

Survey Question & Choices:

Who do you plan to vote for in the 2020 November presidential election?

  • The Republican nominee (Trump/Pence)
  • The Democratic nominee (Biden/Harris)
  • A third-party candidate
  • Undecided *
  • I do not intend to vote *
  • Prefer not to say *

* Respondents choosing these options were excluded from the analysis.

ABOUT
PAYSCALE

As the industry leader in compensation data and technology, PayScale helps organizations #getpayright. PayScale is the only technology solution for managing compensation that provides multiple streams of fresh, transparently curated and validated salary data. Combined with modeling engines that learn continuously and generate recommendations and insight, PayScale empowers HR to price jobs and adjust compensation to reflect real-time changes in the market — all on one trusted data platform. With PayScale’s Adaptive Compensation Advantage, teams operate with efficiency, focused on outcomes rather than manual data management.

FOR INDIVIDUALS

Want to know how much you should be paid? PayScale has the most robust salary database in the world with over 65 million profiles representing most occupations, industries and locations in North America. Fill out a Salary Profile now to learn how employers are paying people in positions similar to yours.

FIND OUT WHAT YOU SHOULD BE PAID

FOR EMPLOYERS

Are you someone responsible for setting compensation for employees and looking to pay people fairly? Interested in PayScale’s salary data and products? Learn more about our compensation software and services. Or, ask for a demo and get a chance to discuss your current compensation management processes and learn how PayScale can operationalize data, insights, and speed to give you an Adaptive Compensation Advantage.

DEMO PAYSCALE'S COMPENSATION SOLUTIONS

ABOUT
PAYSCALE

As the industry leader in compensation data and technology, PayScale helps organizations #getpayright. PayScale is the only technology solution for managing compensation that provides multiple sources of fresh, transparently curated and validated salary data. Combined with modeling engines that learn continuously and generate recommendations and insight, PayScale empowers HR to price jobs and adjust compensation to reflect real-time changes in the market — all on one trusted data platform. With PayScale’s Adaptive Compensation Advantage, teams operate with efficiency, focused on outcomes rather than manual data management.

FOR INDIVIDUALS

Want to know how much you should be paid? PayScale has the most robust salary database in the world with over 65 million profiles representing most occupations, industries and locations in North America. Fill out a Salary Profile now to learn how employers are paying people in positions similar to yours.

FIND OUT WHAT YOU SHOULD BE PAID

FOR EMPLOYERS

Are you someone responsible for setting compensation for employees and looking to pay people fairly? Interested in PayScale’s salary data and products? Learn more about our compensation software and services. Or, ask for a demo and get a chance to discuss your current compensation management processes and learn how PayScale can operationalize data, insights, and speed to give you an Adaptive Compensation Advantage.

DEMO PAYSCALE'S COMPENSATION SOLUTIONS